This time, China is different (China, Terminator of Globalization)

Russiky sophistry has rubbed on you Art Grin

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5) Terminator of globalization?

The ideal China in the minds of the developed countries is a split China. This wild and bizarre dream reached its pinnacle when Yugloslav and the USSR were disintegrated. Naturally democracy is part of the formula. Where there is democracy, disintegration is not difficult to bring about. This has for a long while the focal point of their attention when it comes to China. The democracy movement, Dalai Lama and East (Tunisian) used to carry all the hopes and glistening glamour.

The Chinese economy is a big part of the democratic-disintegration plan. Economic development is to be encouraged, because according to certain warped thesis, economic development will necessarily lead to democracy. Success was just on the horizon. Unfortunately the Communist Party was wolfishly tough (Note 9) and actually had the guts to shoot. But then they lost the support of the populace. “The Chinese should wake up and combat with this reactionary power. Success should not be far away.”

This fantasy dominated the developed countries’ observation of China. Yet this is a serious dereliction of duty. If one were to be impolite, all these experts of China are “eating rice” (Note 10). The developed countries did not in fact understand China, their grasp of the status of affairs, the emotions and inclination of the Chinese was totally off the mark, so much so that they actually focus their work on the hopeless endeavor of democratic-disintegration and wiped up some human right and democracy fuss to tinker the blockade of China, as if these were the fruit of their labour. This sort of siege though is very easy to handle. The PRC government was in fact very lousy in terms of propaganda, luckily she still had the wit to dispatch those infatuated with democratic notions to America. The public and the ideologues in China started a discussion and debate on their own initiative and send democracy back to America using the weaponry provided by imperialistic America. There are still though some totally infatuated with western democratic theory, who are either simplistic singletons or endowed with over complicated brains. A country with long history such a China, has very deep and structured foundation in ideology heritage and in depth thought and debate. These numbskulls failed to work their minds around when circumstances and momentum had evolved. The Western countries have suffered a huge defeat on the ideology front. They are still unwilling to admit it and they try to sustain their denial instead in all sorts of bizarre ways. As a result, Tianman Square is a staple when they mention China in their essays, the rigidity and stereotype of which comparable to the works of the PRC propaganda bureau.

When all eyes of the Western countries were on the negligible sparks of the democracy movement in China, the government waged a global economic counter-attack in stealth. When the Yuan was depreciated all the way to over 8 Yuan to 1 dollar in one go, it attracted less attention than Harry Wu’s money scamming, wilfully made up story of the gulag. These democratic slackers discharged very well their historical mission of being set up and hurting their masters instead before they marched to the finishing post of their finality. There were a few who noticed this unusual maneuver of China and gave a small smile: The Chinese government has finally keeled over under the distorted and overvalued official exchange rate and returned it to its rightful level. At the time the black-market rate was substantially higher than that of the official rate and there were all kinds of assertion that the GDP in USD was inflated, that it was a scam, and that you couldn’t actually get that rate in the banks. Amongst all these bizarre assertions, very few noticed the big strategic change behind the exchange policy.

Of course things have became quite clear now. From then on foreign investment poured in, the central government started working frantically on infrastructure while the local governments tried pulling in business and capital stark-crazed, all in a mad dash to becoming the global production base. Foreign trade volume increased from no more than 200 billion in 1993 to around 1 trillion within 10 years. The 5 years after 2000 saw the wildest growth of foreign trade and the tripling of this humongous base figure. The cause can be attributed to earlier positioning. The growth of foreign reserves was more staggering. It was over 700 billion by estimation as at the end of June 2000, and would probably increase to over 800 billion within the year, recording a more than 20 times growth within 10 years. The wild growth resultant from the stealth attack thereby differentiated China fundamentally from other developing countries. Phenomenon novel to developmental economics keep presenting themselves, people finally realized they have to look at China with new eyes.

The WTO negotiation was quite remarkable. Both parties were beaming from ear to ear after execution by the Americans. From the surface, the woman representative from America looked more like the triumphant party, her smile more heartily and cheerful. She was of course perfectly justified to do so. I am almost dead certain that they managed to squeezed out many a better than expected term. They were smug and looked upon the Chinese government as an unworldly, gullible sucker. Therein lies their mistake. International trade in subsequent years proved that China had a better idea of what to do with her own advantage in international trade, so much so that she did not care about giving away a few things. Were the Americans to realize that China could dredge up such gains, they would not have let her in so easily. Of course I could be too demanding on the Americans. It was a bit of a challenge to the imagination to fathom that foreign trade volume could double within 3 years of her entry. But there is no crying over spilled milk now. America’s request for Yuan appreciation could only met the stern and forceful refute from Wen.

10 years ago China vowed to hide its light under the bushel. This is what you have to chant to outsiders, pretty inane if you think about it. What is the point anyway? Would your adversary buy it? They would be surrounding you, blocking you and twisting your arm anyway despite your claim. Yet the funny thing is, this “light under the bushel” strategy proved to be quite a successful mid-term to long-term strategy after the government had chosen to dispense with it and moved onto flexing its muscle. We can only attribute it to the primitive level of sociology and economic studies, such that America has been markedly skewed in its understanding of China and launched a fruitless and meaningless democratic siege. America is too confident with its peaceful evolution and globalization, which is only normal. When you have just tripped the USSR and Eastern Europe into collapsing completely on their face and with a small stroke, let the blood of SE Asia in a financial storm, how can you not be confident?

Confronted with China, America’s confidence is receding, its impatience growing. Is globalization working or not? With our big achievement in Latin America, SE Asia, Russia and Eastern Europe, China throwing herself into the snare of WTO and all these better than expected terms, how could this be? Is WTO set up for the benefit of America or China? Look at the import structure of America. Exporting agricultural and mineral products and importing all high to low end consumer goods, how is America different from the “import substitute” Latin America? This is quite hilarious. Unfavourable balance nearing 100 billion flows into China every year, fortunately America can always step on the printing machine. But there are problems. Its economic power to thwart China has weakened. When China crushed down on democracy it could use genuine force and blockade her economically. Subsequently it could still reinforce the MPF review every year and throw all kinds of human right reports in her face. Yet now, a few years have passed and the Yuan remained lowly. The Chinese government will not so much as to say something agreeable to the ears and preserve its face. Its own congressmen continue to table bills of economic threats when in fact they should thank their lucky star if China does not threaten America. Greenspan had to explain gingerly: This economy of ours….not exactly comparable to what we use to have…all these domestic and external debt is not small…and if China does not take it up…

China is not hiding its light any more, it is moving side to side around the world with money in her hand and knocking on American doors for acquisition. She is growing at high speed despite mounting problems. Against the background of phenomenal growth, nobody dares to be wimper a word. Is there a god? There is no god. There is only hard fact. And a fact is a fact. China has drudged real gold and genuine silver, and you have to overhaul your democratic disintegration theory. Developing country or not, I have made big money from international trade, I bought raw materials, I got favourable balance growing bigger and bigger, I got huge foreign reserves as well. I launch big project every year, I make warships like dumplings. My annual growth nears 10%, I would sigh and scream bloody crisis were it to be 7%, while you would burn huge incense to thank your lucky star if you had 6%. My per capita USD1000 have enough greenback to bury you into silence. My 2008 Olympic Games will enjoy more advanced and state-of-the-art equipment and arena than your 2004 Games. My industries with comparative advantage have huge advantage over you, so much as you are forced to rely on quota, special terms and conditions, and environmental protection standards, and your own labour are driven into protesting against globalization. For your industries with comparative advantage, God knows how much longer these advantage would last. Your stay-put and do-nothing associate plants will still be transferred to China, or else there can be no profit. I will be throwing big money into R&D. See my R&D expenses have doubled in three years, rated No. 3 world wide. I will not believe all this money cannot make a noise. Isn’t money what all this is about? With my favourable trade balance, who am I afraid of? My domestic bad debts may run into trillions, but they are nothing compared to your national debt. And you want me to collapse? If you are grumpy, I can still issue more bonds and wipe up more bad debts, I promise you my growth will be no less spectacular. I will drive your nuts. I am a state, I print my own money. The infrastructure and plants I make are real, you have no infrastructure no plant, fiscal integrity is nothing more than hot air. The beggars have the best fiscal integrity. If you have advance technology, I’ll respect you and keep one foot’s distance, you transfer it to me and we will make a deal, money is not a problem, I will make sure you are amply compensated. If you try to shut me out, I will not have it. Chairman Mao said we will get it even if it means working on it for ten thousand years.

Globalization comes to China and finds its end here. The banker takes all (note 11) and industries are concentrated here. “People dumb, money plenty, come quick” (note 12). Hundreds of millions of peasants, dozens of local government are waiting for you. Raw materials is a matter for the gods to decide, industrialization is something we will not be coy and shy away from. After all you yourself are here without ado, aren’t you? For speculation, look elsewhere, our government “hits relentlessly”. Say, you are quite “harnessed” in Shanghai’s property market yourself, are you not? You can’t really turn any more new tricks in terms of globalization now, the ultimate stage is taking place in China. You may speculate in tertiary production or busy yourself with virtual economy and rocketing GDP, I don’t care. You may zero into high tech and pull out another IT industry from your hat, if so I will respect you. But you can’t, can you? You have wrecked your brains and could not come up with any more “buckspect” now could you? You may engage in production around the world but you are still bound to keep an eye on our moves, even though our GDP is not even comparable to that of Italy.

The developing countries have come to their senses and their free trade zones with China are coming one after another. The developed countries have not come round yet but it is a matter of time. What else could they do? Launch nuclear warfare? Australia for one has come round. In essence America and Japan are the two die-hards, wracking havoc everywhere throwing its weight over pipelines, buying up oilfields and kicking up dispute. But since China has made it through the incidentally shocks of globalization, wracking havoc is pointless.

From now on it will not only be China to reform and open up and adapt to the rest of the world, the rest of the world has to adjust to adapt to China as well. Not happy and we fight. Who is afraid of whom?

Note 9. Wolves are believed to be very tough. They are the only animals when captured will actually gnaw their own paws offs to free themselves from the traps.
Note 10. I have never heard of it and don’t know what it means. Presumably when one is eating one is reduced to an unthinking being of sensory instinct?
Note 11. As in the case of getting 3 identical numbers in the gambling game of throwing 3 dice.
Note 12. This is an urban legend kind of telegram that was presumably sent from a trailblazing conman/woman to his/her folks in home town, asking them to come over and sucker those in the new found spot.

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